Whoever builds a new plant for Guatemala's PEG-6 competes only with geothermal and natural gas

In the PEG-5, more than half of the capacity awarded was solar; for new plants, the PEG-6 admits only geothermal and natural gas.

In the PEG-5, the solar component added up to 701 of the 1,258 MW of maximum guaranteed capacity awarded for 15 years. Of 960 MW of maximum natural gas offers, 15 were awarded.

For the PEG-6, the Comisión Nacional de Energía Eléctrica (CNEE) required firm energy with a capacity factor of at least 90% and energy offered in all hours. For new plants it admitted geothermal and natural gas, a category that includes ethane and propane. The award is scheduled for May 6, 2027.

The recitals reviewed do not show that the change responds to the result of the PEG-5; that relationship remains a hypothesis.

We propose that, with a Capital Projects Decision System, the developer compare configurations under the current rule and under change scenarios, before bidding. That comparison, documented, would be the test.

What asset will you build, with how much storage, and under what conditions will you recover your investment?

The full Perspective, with its sources, is available on request.